Evaluating Colorado Mountain Snowpack: Applications in Higher Education and Regional Avalanche Forecasting

February 27, 2025

David Lerach

Hosted by Kristen Rasmussen

Abstract

Snow avalanches provide a relevant and exciting topic for earth science education and weather and snowpack research, particularly in Colorado where they serve as a major natural hazard to transportation and commerce, as well as life and property. The Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) provides daily avalanche forecasts and assists CDOT in controlling nearly 300 known slide paths across the state. Avalanche forecasters are fairly skillful in predicting short-term regional avalanche hazards. However, local snowpack conditions vary greatly and available snow pit observations (used to assess and verify ever-changing avalanche conditions) are sparse. CAIC operational forecasters are aided by an in-house 2-km snowpack reanalysis product, produced by a WRF-driven 1D snowpack model (WRF-SNOWPACK). This seminar will highlight current research efforts to (1) verify WRF-SNOWPACK reanalysis with an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) at Berthoud Pass, Colorado during the 2024 – 25 winter season, and (2) develop a HRRR-SNOWPACK Colorado reanalysis product for additional operational guidance. Preliminary results will be presented, including identified biases in snow depth, temperature, wind, and snow metamorphism in key layers. The seminar will additionally explore active learning strategies for merging snowpack, avalanche, and atmospheric science curricula via mentored research projects and a field weekend in Rocky Mountain National Park as part of an extreme mountain weather course.