Defenses for Spring 2024

Bridging Human and Artificial Intelligence for Skillful, Trustworthy, and Insightful Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

July 26, 2024

Jamin Rader

Seasonal-to-decadal climate variability is inherently difficult to predict and is intimately connected to human and natural systems worldwide. Skillful forecasts on two-month to ten-year timescales would enable proactive and informed decision-making for many industries, including fisheries, water management, and agriculture. Understanding the behavior of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability…

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF OCEANIC HIGH-LATITUDE DRIZZLE USING A COMBINED RADAR-RADIOMETER RETRIEVAL

July 24, 2024

Spencer Jones

The high latitude oceans are problematic for satellite estimations of precipitation due to the high frequency of occurrence of light drizzle and snowfall. Microwave radiometric observations are sensitive to integrated cloud water path and provide good sampling for robust statistics but lack skill in distinguishing precipitation onset from cloud water and cloud ice due to radiation scattering.…

CHANGES IN SHORTWAVE SOLAR RADIATION UNDER LOCAL AND TRANSPORTED WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE, SOLAR ENERGY, AND AIR QUALITY APPLICATIONS

June 10, 2024

Kimberley Corwin

The emission and transport of pollutants from wildfires is well-documented, particularly at the surface. However, smoke throughout the atmospheric column affects incoming shortwave solar radiation with potentially wide-ranging consequences. By absorbing and scattering light, smoke changes the amount and characteristics of shortwave radiation–a resource that controls plant photosynthesis,…

QUANTIFICATION OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS FROM UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT

May 30, 2024

Weixin Zhang

Oil and gas (O&G) development in the U.S. has accelerated in the past two decades, aided by unconventional extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Potential environmental and health impacts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) originating from O&G activities in populated regions have raised concerns. In Broomfield, Colorado, six new O&G well pads were…

MEASUREMENT OF LOW-ALTITUDE AEROSOL LAYERS SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL PASSAGE OBSERVED BY UNCREWED AIRCRAFT

May 22, 2024

Brian Heffernan

Convectively generated cold pools can have myriad impacts on local aerosol concentrations. Passage of cold pools may loft dust, pollen or other aerosols from the surface, and precipitation and humidity changes accompanying cold pools also impact local aerosols in several ways. The vertical profile of aerosols can have important effects on meteorology, however, the effects of cold pools on the…

CLIMATE MODEL ERROR IN THE EVOLUTION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AFFECTS RADIATION AND PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS

May 09, 2024

Marc Alessi

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are the primary tool climate scientists use in predicting the effects of climate change. While they have skill in reproducing global-mean temperature over the historical period, they struggle to replicate recently observed sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns. In this dissertation, we quantify the impact of potential future model…

From Surface to Tropopause: On the Vertical Structure of the Tropical Cyclone Vortex

April 30, 2024

Alexander DesRosiers

The internal vortex structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) influences intensity change. Beneficial structural characteristics that allow TCs to capitalize on favorable environmental conditions are an important determinant as to whether a TC will undergo rapid intensification (RI) or not. Accurately forecasting RI is a significant challenge and past work identified characteristics of radial and…

AIR QUALITY IMPACTS FROM UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT

January 10, 2024

I-Ting Ku

Unconventional oil and natural gas development (UOGD) has expanded rapidly across the United States raising concerns about associated air quality impacts. While significant effort has been made to quantify and limit methane emissions, relatively few observations have been made of emitted Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs). Extensive air monitoring during development of several large, multi-well…